Morgan Stanley Predicts iPhone Sales Will Drop Next Year for the First Time Ever

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Posted December 14, 2015 at 3:36pm by iClarified

Morgan Stanley has published a research note from analyst Katy Huberty that predicts sales of the iPhone will drop in 2016 for the first time ever.

Business Insider says Huberty expects unit sales of the iPhone to decline in fiscal 2016 by nearly 6% (or 2.9% in the 2016 calendar year). Even in post-iPhone 5s period Apple has never had negative unit sales growth.

Morgan Stanley thinks that FY2016 iPhones sales will be 218 million – a 5.7% drop — while CY2016 sales will be 224,000 — a 2.9% drop. These predictions are significantly below Huberty's previous estimates, of 247 million for FY2016 and 252 CY2016.

The drop in predicted unit sales is being blamed on "higher prices in international markets (ex-China) and maturing smartphone penetration in developed markets weighs on upgrades and new user growth."

KGI Securities analyst Ming-Chi Kuo has also predicted a drop in iPhone 6s sales. Kuo noted that the iPhone 6s may not sell as well as the iPhone 6 with a possible 30%-40% decline in quarter over quarter shipments.

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Morgan Stanley Predicts iPhone Sales Will Drop Next Year for the First Time Ever

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King Rollo - December 14, 2015 at 11:19pm

Morgan Stanley didn't they fail to correctly predict the banking crisis... Just saying...

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paulMOGG - December 14, 2015 at 9:56pm

I guess Morgan Stanley are trying to keep them selves in the limelight with their prediction about iphone sales in 2016 and it seems that MS are clutching at straws to do this ... Anyway who really cares what this old company 'thinks' ?

Kels - December 14, 2015 at 5:32pm

iPhones are not expensive. I don't get why people can't afford it. I buy a new one every year since launch. New car every 2 years. New girl every 4-6 months. Chump change.

gamerscul9870 - December 14, 2015 at 5:37pm

It probably depends on where people live and if the deals are making it that easy to get one like mobiles iPhone upgrade program paying $5 monthly. To be it's not too expensive but I get them at price drops (black Friday or after a year it's been on the market.

Dan - December 14, 2015 at 5:31pm

Pretty stupid call on Morgan Stanley and they are basing this off of hmmm their magic ball. Wall Street has notoriously failed at calling the tech market.

User123 - December 14, 2015 at 4:31pm

In my country is 30% more expensive than the US, also the fact that the celular carriers are not subsidising it anymore the phone makes it a little more unreachable, the only option they are offering is purchasing by making payments

gamerscul9870 - December 14, 2015 at 4:23pm

So you're saying just because they say something makes it true?

Yo - December 14, 2015 at 9:27pm

I'm saying they have zero history to base it on

justabrake - December 14, 2015 at 3:56pm

What little upgrade will they come with in September! Samsung is a much more valuable company.....

gamerscul9870 - December 14, 2015 at 4:00pm

Valuable enough to copy apple as always, plus did you not catch the phrase, "the only thing that changed is EVERYTHING"?! You call that little upgrade? Tmobile calls it the best iPhone ever.

Nitro Junkie - December 14, 2015 at 10:02pm

Samsungs a more valuable company? Give me a break! Their sales and profits have been dropping drastically the 2-3 years. You're delusional.

gamerscul9870 - December 14, 2015 at 3:42pm

After people finally got the big screen iPhones they have waited for, how can iPhone sales stop there?