Counterpoint Drops 2025 Smartphone Shipment Forecast Citing Tariff Uncertainty

Citing uncertainty over U.S. tariffs, Counterpoint Research has trimmed its 2025 global smartphone shipment forecast, dropping the expected growth from 4.2% to 1.9% year-over-year. While most regions are still expected to grow, the latest Market Outlook report anticipates declines in North America and a flat year for China.

The main drag on the forecast comes from potential price hikes passed on to consumers, with Counterpoint revising its projections for both Apple and Samsung downward. The report suggests higher costs could hurt demand, a possibility we've covered regarding potential iPhone price increases. "All eyes are on Apple and Samsung because of their exposure to the US market," commented Associate Director Liz Lee. "Although tariffs have played a role in our forecast revisions, we are also factoring in weakened demand not just in North America but across Europe and parts of Asia."




Despite these concerns, Counterpoint still expects positive shipment growth for Apple in 2025, thanks to the iPhone 16 lineup's strong start and continued demand for premium devices in emerging markets. The iPhone 16 base model was the world's best-selling smartphone in the first quarter of the year.

The forecast for China has been revised to near-flat growth after a lackluster response to government subsidies, a challenging environment where Apple recently slipped to fifth place in market share. In contrast, Huawei's outlook has been upgraded due to easing supply chain bottlenecks and sustained momentum from its self-developed chips. On the Android front, Huawei is seen as a bright spot. "We are seeing an easing around sourcing bottlenecks for key components at least through the rest of the year, which should help Huawei grab substantial share in the mid-to-lower-end segments at home," said Associate Director Ethan Qi.

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