Apple Allegedly Cuts iPhone 16 Orders by 10 Million

Apple has cut iPhone 16 orders by around 10 million units for 4Q24–1H25, according to TF International Securities analyst Ming-Chi Kuo.

In a post today, Kuo claimed the cuts mostly affect non-Pro models. As a result, he estimates iPhone 16 production for 2H24 at 84 million units, down from 88 million. Furthermore, total iPhone production for 4Q24, 1Q25, and 2Q25 is now forecasted at around 80 million, 45 million, and 39 million units, respectively. Those are all down YoY when compared to 84 million, 48 million, and 41 million in 4Q23, 1Q24 and 2Q24, respectively.

Apple's iPhone revenue in 4Q24 may not fully reflect the impact of production cuts, as the gap between production and sell-through in 4Q23 was larger than in 4Q24, and the product mix in 4Q24 is more favorable (with increased production of the Pro Max model for Sep-Oct). However, iPhone revenues are expected to come under pressure in 1H25 due to a YoY shipment decline and a less favorable product mix due to the launch of SE4.


Kuo expects the order cuts will put pressure on iPhone suppliers beginning in late 4Q24, with most of the impact in 1H25.

Looking at future growth, Kuo says Apple is positioned to succeed in on-device AI long-term, perhaps by offering it as a paid service. However, he suggests that Apple Intelligence may not drive a big sales boost in the short term, saying "significant growth in iPhone shipments will likely require further hardware innovation to accompany this AI development."

Finally, Kuo says iPhone SE4 mass production will start in December 2024, with projected production of around 8.6 million units from December 2024 to 1Q25.

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