J.P. Morgan Lowers 2024 iPhone 16 Forecast, Cites Muted Early Demand [Report]

J.P. Morgan is reiterating an overweight rating for AAPL and cutting its iPhone 16 unit forecast for 2024, citing muted early demand.

Analyst Samik Chatterjee notes that early signs are indicating a robust product cycle for the iPhone 16; however, he says the launch lacked early momentum for the high-end models, compared with prior cycles. The company's lead time tracker points to more muted momentum in early orders for the iPhone 16 Pro, likely due to the unavailability of AI features at launch.

Chatterjee believes that customers may be delaying purchases until Apple Intelligence features are available and the value proposition is better understood. Thus, J.P. Morgan is moderating its near-term iPhone unit forecast for 2H24 down from 130 million to 126 million. Compare that to 132 million a year ago.


Despite this revision, the analyst expects that sales will ramp up to beat both the iPhone 15 and iPhone 14.

Our expectations for a robust AI cycle in the medium-term remain unchanged, and the revision in our near-term estimates only represents a modest push out from volumes to later in the cycle. We expect consumer appetite for the AI-based iPhones, including the 16 Series, to increase with the broader availability of AI features, including across more languages (English in calendar 2H24 with other languages in 2025). Thus, we continue to forecast aggregate volumes for the 16 Series over the next four quarters to track ahead of both the 15 and 14 Series, and only modestly below the 13 and 12 Series, with the 2025 iPhone Series continuing to represent the peak of the AI cycle on the broader dissemination and richness of AI as well as hardware features available.

Based on this analysis, J.P. Morgan is also lowering its near-term revenue and earnings for Apple. The out-year forecast remains unchanged with the company reiterating its overweight rating and a December 2025 price target of $265.

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