Apple Could Sell 190 Million iPhones Next Year

An Alphawise survey conducted for Morgan Stanley reveals that Apple is about to sell a huge amount of iPhones, reports Katy Huberty.

FORTUNE breaks down a note that Huberty issued to clients late Wednesday.

● iPhones are selling surprisingly well. Huberty estimates that Apple could ship anywhere from 31 to 36 million iPhones this quarter -- as much as 20% higher than the 30 million she's modeling and nearly 30% higher than the 28 million Wall Street is expecting.


● iPhone demand is accelerating. "Surprisingly, US consumers expect to buy more iPhones in C1Q12 than C4Q11". Discounting the survey results by 10% has Apple selling 13 million iPhones in the U.S. and 41 million worldwide next quarter. Morgan Stanley's model has Apple selling 30 million iPhones in calendar Q1 2012.

● Demand for tablets shows no sign of weakening. The survey found 8% of US customers own a tablet and 27% plan to buy one. If Apple loses 4 points of market share to Amazon this means Apple could sell 81 million iPads worldwide next year. Morgan Stanley's model has Apple selling 52 million iPads.

● Apple could sell 15 million more iPads with a $100 price cut. After applying a 30% discount to the survey, Hubert estimates that if Apple was to reduce the price of the iPad by $100, they could sell 90 million iPads worldwide which is about 10 million more than it plans to build.

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