Apple Cuts Vision Pro Forecasts Due to Sharp Decline in Demand [Kuo]

Apple has purportedly cut its 2024 and 2025 forecasts for Vision Pro shipments due to a sharp fall in demand for the device, according to a new report from TF International Securities analyst Ming-Chi Kuo.

In a new post today, Kuo says that Apple has cut its 2024 forecast to 400-450k units, down from a market consensus of 700-800k units or more.

Apple allegedly cut its order before launching outside the US, indicating that it saw a bigger dropoff in sales than expected.


Notably, Apple is said to have cut its orderes before launching outside the US, which means that

Apple is reviewing and adjusting its head-mounted display (HMD) product roadmap, so there may be no new Vision Pro model in 2025 (the previous expectation was that there would be a new model in 2H25/4Q25). Apple now expects Vision Pro shipments to decline YoY in 2025.

Kuo notes that weaker-than-expected Vision Pro demands means that the following trends will likely be below market expectations...

● MR headset devices. The challenge for Vision Pro is to address the lack of key applications, price, and headset comfort without sacrificing the see-through user experience. In contrast, VR is also a niche market, but at least there are proven successful applications (games), and trend visibility is better than MR.


● Pancake. As the upgrade of optical specifications for smartphones has slowed down for several years, investors expect Pancake, which has a significantly higher unit price than lenses, to become a new growth driver for the optical sector. Weaker-than-expected shipments of Vision Pro will lower Pancake's contribution to the optical industry in the foreseeable future than investors' expectations.

● Micro OLED. Vision Pro/MR headset is the most critical application of Micro OLED. With key applications not growing as expected, the timeframe of mass production and adoption of Micro OLEDs in other small-sized consumer electronics devices will be delayed.

Kuo's report does align with anecdotal stories we've been hearing from retail store staff. Consumer interest in Vision Pro does appear to have slowed; however, we'd expect Apple to keep introducing new features and content that could built additional interest over time.

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