Lack of Design Changes for iPhone 16 Likely to Harm Apple's Momentum [Kuo]

Apple beat Samsung and topped the global smartphone market for the very first time in 2023; however, the company is now revising down shipment forecasts for 2024, according to a new report from TF International Securities analyst Ming-Chi Kuo.

A recent supply chain survey revealed that Apple has lowered 2024 iPhone shipments of key upstream semiconductor components to about 200 million units, that's down 15% year over year. Kuo says Apple may see the most significant decline among the major global mobile phone brands this year.

iPhone 15 series and new iPhone 16 series shipments will decline by 10–15% YoY in 1H24 and 2H24, respectively (compared to iPhone 14 series shipments in 1H23 and iPhone 15 series shipments in 2H23, respectively).


Challenges facing iPhone include the emergence of AI as a key feature for smartphones, the return of Huawei to the Chinese market, and a growing preference for foldable smartphones.

The new high-end mobile phone design paradigm includes AI (GenAI) and foldable phones. The main reason for the decline in the Cithinese market is the return of Huawei and the increasing preference for foldable phones among high-end users as their first choice for phone replacement.

Samsung just announced its new Galaxy S24 smartphones with a focus on new GalaxyAI features. The company has purportedly revised up shipments of the device in 2024 by 5-10%, while Apple revised down shipments of the iPhone 15.

Kuo also suggests that the iPhone 16 will not bring about significant change, potentially harming Apple's momentum in the smartphone market.


It is expected that Apple will not launch new iPhone models with significant design changes and the more comprehensive/differentiated GenAI ecosystem/applications until 2025 at the earliest. Until then, it will likely harm Apple's iPhone shipment momentum and ecosystem growth.

While details about the iPhone 16 are still minimal, the device is expected to gain a new Capture button and possibly a slight bump in screen size. The iPhone 16 Pro display has been rumored to increase to 6.3-inches from 6.1-inches, while the iPhone 16 Pro Max display could increase to 6.9-inches from 6.7-inches.

Please download the iClarified app or follow iClarified on Twitter, Facebook, YouTube, and RSS for updates.