Morgan Stanley Predicts 10% of iPhone Owners Will Buy Apple Watch Next Year

Morgan Stanley is predicting the sale of 30 million Apple Watches next year based on a 10% penetration of the compatible iPhone user base.

Notably, the company says that their unit estimate is at the high end of consensus but they feel it's arguably still conservative.

"Street estimates run the gamut, with most ranging between 10M and 30M units in the first year. We believe looking at penetration into the Apple installed base yields the most realistic assessment of demand potential of the Watch. Our 30M unit estimate implies 10% penetration into Apple's 315M iPhone 5 or newer installed base exiting 2014, which is lower than iPad penetration of 14% in its first year but higher than iPhone at 7%. However, the iPhone was constrained by limited carrier distribution and a more expensive two-year service contract In addition, our AlphaWise survey indicates initial purchase intentions in the US are higher than they were for the iPhone and iPad pre-launch."


Morgan Stanley has also raised their price target on AAPL to $126 from $115, raised their bull case to $150 from $135 and their bear case to $92 from $77.

Check out the charts below for more details. Are you planning to purchase the Apple Watch? Let us know in the comments!