iPad Mini Estimated to Cannibalize iPad Sales at a Rate of 15-20%

Analysts have begun estimating the rate at which iPad mini sales will cannibalize those of its larger sibling as its rumored release draws nearer.

Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster estimates that Apple will sell 25 million iPads in December, 5 million of which will be iPad minis and 20 million of which will be iPads.

“We believe that the smaller iPad could cannibalize one million regular iPad units in December or a rate of cannibalization at 20 percent,” Munster said. “[So] for every five million smaller iPads, you lose one million standard iPads.”


AllthingsD notes that this is a bit higher than estimates from others such as Janney Montgomery Scott’s Bill Choi who expects the cannibalization rate to be about 15%.

“We view the smaller iPad as mostly an incremental opportunity, but see some modest cannibalization risk to the iPad and iPod touch,” he said.

Apple is expected unveil the iPad mini on October 23rd with a street release date of November 2nd.

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