iPad Predicted to Sell 21 Million Units in 2011

Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster is predicting that Apple could sell 21 million iPads next year and raising his price target on the stock to $390, up from $371.

BusinessInsider relays his three reasons:

● Increased Supply & Expanded Distribution Channels. For 5 months after the U.S. iPad launch in April demand outstripped supply (recall: the iPad's international launch was delayed by one month due to limited supply). Heading into CY11 it appears that Apple has increased capacity and is expanding the iPad distribution channel. All 1,000+ U.S. Best Buy stores will carry the iPad by the end of Sept. We also believe the iPad will join the iPod lineup at Target stores before the 2010 holiday season. Ultimately we expect the total iPad points of purchase to exceed that of the Mac by 2011.


● International Rollout & Adoption In Price Sensitive Markets. On 9/17 Apple launched the iPad in China and 5 Latin American countries (20 countries total). Apple is expanding iPad's availability into more price-sensitive markets. The initial launches (U.S. and Europe) targeted developed PC markets in which the iPad is likely a secondary computing device. However, the iPad is now available in markets where it is more likely that the iPad is used as a primary computing device for those who could not previously afford a Mac. We ran a combined ASP for Macs and iPads in the June quarter and the ASP declined from $1,267 (Macs only) to $1,031 (down 19% for Macs and iPads combined).

● Uptake In Enterprise Sector. Of any product Apple sells we believe the iPad has the potential to garner the largest percentage of its sales from enterprise customers. Apple has recently highlighted several business use cases on its site (sales, medical, hospitality, etc.) and on the June-10 conference call the company indicated that over 50% of the Fortune 500 were deploying or piloting the iPad.

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