U.S. iPhone Install Base Growth Slowed in 1Q19 [Report]

The iPhone install base in the United States continued to plateau in the first quarter of 2019, according to a new report from CIRP.

Consumer Intelligence Research Partners says the install base of iPhones in the United States reached 193 million units as of March 30, 2019, compared to 189 million at the end of last year and 173 million at the end of the year ago quarter. This is based on estimated global sales of 39 million iPhones, derived from an estimated Average Selling Price of $803 and Apple's disclosed iPhone revenues.

As of March 30, 2019, the installed base grew 2% relative to the December 2018 prior quarter and 12% relative to the year-ago March 2019 quarter. One year ago, the iPhone US installed base grew 4% over the prior quarter and 19% over the prior year.


“The US installed base of iPhones continues to plateau,” said Josh Lowitz, CIRP Partner and Co-Founder. “Relative to the most recent quarters, and especially to the past two or three years, slowing unit sales and longer ownership periods means that the growth in the number of US iPhones has flattened considerably. Of course, 12% growth in a year, after years of much greater growth is still good. However, investors grew accustomed to quarterly growth of 5% or more, and annual growth of almost 20%. This continuing trend prompts investors to wonder if iPhone sales outside of the US will compensate, and places greater pressure on Apple’s determination to sell other products and services to the installed base of iPhone owners.”

“It’s now been two quarters since Apple stopped disclosing unit sales,” said Mike Levin, Partner and Co-Founder of CIRP. “We’ve continued to use our survey data to estimate weighted average retail price for the US, called US-WARP, as a close approximation of ASP. Based on an estimated ASP of $803, and Apple’s disclosed iPhone revenues of about $31 billion, we estimate Apple sold approximately 39 million iPhones, of all models and storage capacities, globally in the quarter. We then translate this estimate of global unit sales into our estimate of US unit sales and along with our proprietary data on retirement of mobile phones in the US, assess its implications for the US installed base.”

See the chart below for more details...