Citi's Glen Yeung latest note to investors takes a bearish view of Apple's stock; however, Yeung does suggest that an iWatch is 'increasingly likely' for 2013.
"While we had expected to hear optimism around Apple's forthcoming product refreshes in this round of checks, we were surprised at the skepticism at many points in the supply chain," says Yeung.
Most Apple suppliers "...expect negative revisions to Apple's 2H13 iPhone build forecast that, if realized, could result in flattish y/y unit growth (including low-cost iPhone). A modest delay in iPhone 5S production (underscoring our concerns about Apple's ability to execute) is contributing to this view. Meanwhile, a push-out of iPad Mini Retina leaves emphasis on the lower-priced Mini 2, pressuring ASPs and underscoring our concerns about Apple's GM. To be sure, the supply chain is ready for iWatch production, making it look increasingly likely for 2H13, although iTV remains elusive (we do not expect meaningful revenue contribution for iWatch in 2013). In light of our findings, we find it difficult to side with the bulls at this time and, despite valuation, we expect Apple to remain in a range around our $430 PT."
FORTUNE notes that when it examined analyst's accuracy on forecasting Apple's quarterly results, Yeung scored second to last, 61 out of 62.
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"While we had expected to hear optimism around Apple's forthcoming product refreshes in this round of checks, we were surprised at the skepticism at many points in the supply chain," says Yeung.
Most Apple suppliers "...expect negative revisions to Apple's 2H13 iPhone build forecast that, if realized, could result in flattish y/y unit growth (including low-cost iPhone). A modest delay in iPhone 5S production (underscoring our concerns about Apple's ability to execute) is contributing to this view. Meanwhile, a push-out of iPad Mini Retina leaves emphasis on the lower-priced Mini 2, pressuring ASPs and underscoring our concerns about Apple's GM. To be sure, the supply chain is ready for iWatch production, making it look increasingly likely for 2H13, although iTV remains elusive (we do not expect meaningful revenue contribution for iWatch in 2013). In light of our findings, we find it difficult to side with the bulls at this time and, despite valuation, we expect Apple to remain in a range around our $430 PT."
FORTUNE notes that when it examined analyst's accuracy on forecasting Apple's quarterly results, Yeung scored second to last, 61 out of 62.
Read More