KGI Securities analyst Ming-Chi Kuo says that iPhone 7 demand has peaked just two months after the release of the new smartphone.
Kuo claims that shipments have declined significantly in November. Suppliers are allegedly revising shipments down by 5-15% in November-December due to lower than expected demand.
As the 4.7-inch iPhone 7, which accounts for a higher share of iPhone shipments, is in stock in the main global markets, we believe overall iPhone shipments have peaked. We think iPhone shipment forecasts will be revised down due to: (1) lower-than-expected demand due to a lack of spec surprises in the 4.7-inch iPhone 7; and (2) shorter times for delivering online orders of 5.5-inch iPhone 7 Plus, which implies slowing demand. We note that the out-of-stock phenomenon also results from fixed capacity, and is not only due to robust demand.
Kuo also reiterated a forecast of possible year-over-year iPhone shipment declines in the first quarter of 2017.
Well of course it has. Everybody who wanted an iPhone 7 has had two months to get one now. Plenty of time. Everyone else either can't afford one, doesn't want one, or is waiting for the tenth anniversary iPhone expected next year.